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The number of unemployed individuals in Switzerland rose slightly to 2.6% in November, influenced by seasonal factors, while the OECD has slightly increased its growth forecast for the Swiss economy to 1.5% for 2025. Meanwhile, Bitcoin surpassed $100,000 for the first time, reaching $103,620. UBS reported a positive month for pension funds, with an average performance of 1.46% in November, driven by strong global equities, although Swiss equities saw a decline.
The DAX index achieved a new all-time high, closing at 20,385 after a 0.1% gain on Friday, marking a 3.9% increase for the week. Positive US labor market data fueled the rise, with intraday peaks reaching 20,426. Looking ahead, potential resistance lies at 20,500, while support levels are identified at 20,017 and 19,675.
UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti warned that geopolitical tensions and trade tariffs could lead to increased volatility in financial markets next year. He emphasized the importance of maintaining a well-diversified portfolio amid current uncertainties, while noting that consumers and the economy remain resilient. Ermotti also called for transparency regarding the causes of Credit Suisse's collapse, which UBS acquired last year, highlighting the need for clarity before any regulatory changes that could impact the financial center's competitiveness.
Tesla shares reached a new high for the year, closing at USD 389.22 after a 5.3% gain on Friday, following a 12.8% increase in the first week of December. The focus now shifts to the USD 400 mark, with potential resistance at USD 402.63 and the all-time high of USD 414.46 in sight. Conversely, a decline could see support levels tested at USD 384.25 and lower.
US labor market data showed stronger job creation, but inflation concerns loom ahead of the Fed's upcoming decision, especially with potential government spending increases under President Trump. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is expected to cut rates amid political uncertainty in Germany and France, while the DAX index continues to reach new highs, buoyed by hopes of a resilient US economy despite looming trade tensions.
The European Union is set to fall short of its usual status as a net grain exporter in the current marketing year, with a net export surplus of only 230,000 tons, a significant drop from 5.76 million tons last year. Exports plummeted by 31% to 13.91 million tons, primarily due to a poor wheat harvest in France, while imports remained relatively stable at 13.68 million tons. Notably, wheat exports decreased by 30.2%, and barley and maize exports saw even steeper declines.
The SMI index is under pressure from Nestlé, Novartis, and Roche, while Richemont and Swatch see gains. As the stock market approaches the final two full weeks of 2024, attention turns to upcoming interest rate decisions from the SNB and ECB, with expected cuts of 25 basis points. The Fed's decision next week will follow key assessments of consumer and producer prices.
Rental prices in Winterthur have surged by eight to ten percent over the past two years, with a 1-room apartment now costing around 1290 francs and a 5.5-room apartment nearly 3300 francs. The vacancy rate is at an all-time low, driving up property prices as well, with condominiums averaging CHF 1.3 million and single-family homes CHF 2.2 million. Raiffeisen's chief economist, Fredy Hasenmaile, discusses the implications of state subsidies for affordable housing and the shift in investment trends in the local market.
Asian markets opened sluggishly, with the Nikkei up 0.19% and the KOSPI down 1.37%, despite Wall Street's tech-driven gains. Attention is on China's inflation data, expected to show slight improvement, while South Korea faces ongoing political uncertainty that may dampen market sentiment. The Hang Seng Index saw a rally last week, but future gains depend on the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference's outcomes.
Wall Street saw gains with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 reaching record highs, fueled by a mixed jobs report that raised expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December. The non-farm payrolls increased to 227,000, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. As the November consumer price index report approaches, inflation is anticipated to rise to 2.7% year-on-year, while core inflation is expected to hold steady at 3.3%. The Nasdaq 100 is poised for further gains if it remains above key support levels, while the S&P 500 aims for upward movement towards 6300.
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